YR4 has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in the year 2032. But according to new estimates, it may have an even smaller chance of hitting the moon instead.

“NASA analysis drops asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability to 0.004%, meaning it is expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032,” NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office posted on X Monday. The European Space Agency shared a similar risk assessment of its own Tuesday, finding that the probability was .001%.