Investors are betting that Lilly will maintain its momentum. Its share price has climbed by a third since the start of 2024; Novo’s has fallen by as much (see chart 2). Lilly’s edge rests on a more effective drug, better execution, some keener pricing and a stronger pipeline.

Novo Nordisk stock rose after the Danish pharma giant posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings, but cuts its guidance for the year. For the full year, the company now expects sales growth between 13% and 21%.

Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill for chronic weight loss is under FDA review. If approved, it would be the first oral GLP-1 for obesity.