In this post, I explain how a newly introduced bias—likelihood neglect bias—can prevent us from forming accurate judgments about the world.

We develop an estimation procedure for a discrete probability mass function (pmf) with unknown support. We derive its maximum likelihood estimator under the mild and natural shape-constraint of ...

Stock image of a mushroom cloud from a nuclear bomb. Experts have weighed in on how we cannot really calculate the likelihood of a nuclear war breaking out. iStock / Getty Images Plus ...

So overall, that means a 75 percent probability of life and 60 percent likelihood of intelligence, for an overall probability of 45 percent.