The probability that NBER will someday determine a national recession began in the US between December 2025 and December 2026 ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Amazon has ordered its latest YA turn. The streamer has handed a greenlight to a series adaptation of The Probability of ...

The basic principle of probability applies to a near infinite parade of situations. Basically, analysts use probability as a means of determining the likelihood of outcomes and occurrences given a ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...

Most humans don’t have a natural facility with probability. It’s not intuitive, like the ability to walk or talk. Learning the mechanics of chance takes time, but is less essential than, say, reading, ...

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Worse, the models “hallucinate” — meaning, they invent. A study of AI tools used in the legal domain shows 58% to 82% ...

Polymarket rate cut forecasts show a 97% probability of a 25 bps interest rate reduction ahead of the Federal Reserve ...

A simple mathematical model has helped chemists selectively synthesise a novel interwoven catenane structure. Researchers say ...