Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Male, grey hair, green top: If you had a dice, an ordinary dice and you threw it, well the probability of getting a one would be six to one. Male, yellow and grey t-shirt: Like with a coin, flip it ...

Are 90% probability strategies a Holy Grail? High Probability or High Risk/Reward? A 90% winning ratio can still lose money. A lot of options traders consider a 90% probability strategy a Holy Grail ...

The probability that NBER will someday determine a national recession began in the US between December 2025 and December 2026 ...