Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Discover the base rate fallacy's impact on investing decisions. Learn how overlooking this cognitive bias can lead to financial misjudgments and market misconceptions.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four months ago, a question that keeps popping up in conversation with colleagues – and with relatives, from Washington to Paris – is: Should they get out of town ...

Northern U.S. states and higher elevations have the best chances of a white Christmas, while southern and western areas are ...