Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I show you how to save and invest. Yield curve inversion has historically predicted U.S. recessions with greater accuracy than ...

When it comes to economic forecasts, the U.S. Treasury yield curve is a go-to gauge for many seasoned investors. And for good reason: An inverted yield curve has accurately foreshadowed all 10 ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

You know that once-mythical soft landing thing that Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee referenced in his recent interview with Marketplace? It’s the thing where inflation is tamed but ...

Many are concerned that a deeply inverted yield curve signals a recession. When we look at the current yield curve, we see an opportunity to add exposure to fixed income. The most direct implication ...

The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also ...

One of the more significant talking points among market analysts in 2022 has been the status of the yield curve. The yield curve is a visual representation of the relationship between bond yields and ...

The US Treasury yield curve is raising alarms among investors and economists again. That’s because it has been flipped upside down in an inversion, as it’s often called, for more than a year . Almost ...

There is much talk these days about the yield curve, and what its shape can tell us about the future of markets. I will not review the analytics of the curve because it is exhaustively covered in the ...